According to a recent national poll conducted by NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC, Vice President Kamala Harris is currently leading former President Donald Trump among Latino voters. However, it is worth noting that this advantage has decreased to the lowest level for Democrats in the past four presidential cycles.
According to the poll, it appears that Democratic candidate Harris has experienced a decrease in support among Latino voters. This comes at a critical time when these influential voters are more likely than the general population to prioritize the economy and the increasing cost of living.
Interestingly, Latino voters believe that Trump holds an advantage over Harris when it comes to these issues. However, a majority of them still prefer Harris due to her temperament, competency, and perceived ability to fulfill the role of president both mentally and physically.
According to the poll, registered Latino voters are showing strong support for Harris, with 54% indicating their preference for her.
Trump, on the other hand, receives 40% of the support among this group, while 6% remain undecided or would not vote. It is important to note that the margin of error in the poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
According to NBC News exit polls, Democratic presidential candidates secured the Latino vote by a significant margin in 2012, 2016, and 2020. They won by 44 points, 38 points, and 33 points respectively.
Latino voters have shown a narrower gap in their preference for which party controls Congress. Currently, 54% of Latino voters lean towards the Democrats, while 42% lean towards the Republicans. This represents a shift from previous years.
Defections from Latino men, particularly those under the age of 50 and without college degrees, are driving the declining support for Democrats in the presidential contest, according to the poll. However, the strong support from Hispanic women, or Latinas, has helped counterbalance some of that erosion.
In a nationwide survey of 1,000 Latino voters conducted in both English and Spanish, it is revealed that there is a significant divide among Latino voters when it comes to immigration.
On one hand, there are those who prioritize a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and preventing discrimination. On the other hand, there are those who place greater emphasis on border enforcement.
According to Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, a Democratic pollster from Hart Research Associates, it is crucial to recognize the immense diversity among Latino voters.
She conducted a poll alongside Republican pollster Micah Roberts and his team at Public Opinion Strategies. Cardona-Arroyo emphasizes that it is more accurate to view Latino voters as individuals rather than as a unified community.
Trump is ahead on the economy, but more Latinos see Harris as a better leader
This Article Includes
The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll sought input from Latino voters on which presidential candidate they believe is more effective in safeguarding immigrant rights, securing the border, and combating crime, as well as addressing abortion issues, the economy, and the increasing cost of living.
According to the survey, Harris has a significant advantage over Trump in several key issues. She leads by 39 points on the issue of immigrant rights, 32 points on abortion, and 5 points on crime.
According to the poll, Trump holds a significant advantage over Harris when it comes to handling inflation and the cost of living, with a 9-point lead.
He also has a 4-point lead in managing the economy and a substantial 13-point lead in securing and controlling the border. The majority of Latinos surveyed, a total of 54%, consider the cost of living and the economy as their primary concerns.
Victor Gutierrez, a 62-year-old resident of New Jersey, expressed his thoughts on the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump.
He mentioned that he is inclined towards supporting Trump due to his perception that Trump has a better understanding of how to handle the responsibilities of being president.
Gutierrez specifically cited Trump’s positions on the economy and border security as factors influencing his decision. As a Puerto Rican, Gutierrez found Harris to be overly theatrical during the debate, which led to a sense of distrust towards her.
According to the poll, Latinos prefer Harris over Trump in all seven categories surveyed, when it comes to determining who possesses the essential leadership qualities and personal traits to be president.
This includes having the right temperament to be president (+28 points), having the necessary mental and physical health (+25 points), being honest and trustworthy (+26 points), and representing change (+21 points).
Michelle García, 49, believes that Harris is a remarkable leader who advocates for the underrepresented communities that have historically been marginalized in government, including women, people of color, and immigrants.
García, a Maryland resident of Peruvian and Puerto Rican heritage, dedicated her Saturday to door-to-door campaigning in her community, urging people to vote for Harris. One of the key reasons behind García’s endorsement of Harris is her firm stance on addressing the economic disparity in the country by narrowing the wealth gap. Additionally, García appreciates Harris’s unwavering support for abortion rights.
Latino voters were also asked about their opinion on which political party is more effective in addressing the concerns of the Hispanic community.
The results showed that a majority of Latino voters, by a margin of 47% to 20%, prefer the Democratic Party. These numbers have remained relatively consistent since the same question was asked in 2022.
The Democratic advantage in sharing values with Latino voters has decreased to 11 points, with 39% of Latino voters favoring the Democrats and 28% favoring the Republicans. This marks a decline from the Democrats’ 19-point lead in this area two years ago.
Latino support varies widely by gender and religion
In California, Matthew Delao, 60, and Fredy Arguello, 50, Hispanic voters who have previously shown support for candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties, are making their choices in the upcoming presidential election.
This time around, Delao has decided to cast his vote for Trump, citing the economic improvements he experienced during the president’s term.
On the other hand, Arguello firmly stands behind Harris, believing that she possesses the essential qualities and expertise to effectively lead the nation.
Arguello noted that there is no comparison between Harris, a former state attorney who has dedicated her career to public service, and Trump, who lacks moral standing.
Delao has a strong belief that Democrats are excessively providing benefits to individuals who shouldn’t require them. According to him, it is crucial for the next President to prioritize the United States and focus on the welfare of its own citizens.
In the 2020 NBC poll, Biden had a significant lead of 20 points over Trump among Latino men. However, there has been a shift in the latest polling data.
Now, young Hispanic voters aged 18 to 34 are supporting Harris over Trump by a narrower margin of 10 points (51% to 41%). This is a decrease from Biden’s commanding lead of 44 points in 2020 (66% to 22%).
According to this poll, Latino men under 50 years old are more likely to support Trump over Harris, with a margin of 51% to 42%. Additionally, Trump is preferred by Latino men without college degrees, with a preference of 51% compared to 38% for Harris.
Latinas over 50 continue to be a strong support base for Harris, with a resounding 74% to 22% victory. Additionally, Hispanic women with college degrees also show strong support for her, with a favorable margin of 61% to 35%.
García, a college graduate who managed to work her way through school and is currently grappling with student loan repayments, firmly believes that Harris possesses a deeper understanding of the challenges faced by individuals in similar circumstances.
García expressed that the experience was humbling and required grit. As a woman, she felt that it represented her.
The poll reveals a divided support among religious Latinos.
Catholic Latinos overwhelmingly favor Harris over Trump, with a significant margin of 20 points (56% to 36%). On the other hand, Trump enjoys a strong lead among evangelical Latinos, with a commanding 64% to 28% advantage.
Interestingly, nonreligious Latinos show a substantial preference for Harris, with a remarkable margin of over 40 points (71% to 24%).
These statistics highlight the diverse voting patterns within the Latino community, with religious affiliation playing a significant role in shaping their political preferences.
A striking split on immigration
Latino attitudes on immigration are also notable in the poll, showcasing a shift in perspective over time. Additionally, there is a clear divide among Latinos when it comes to their priorities on immigration.
According to recent data, a majority of Latino voters (62%) believe that immigration has a positive impact, as it helps more than it hurts. This is in contrast to the 35% who hold the belief that immigration has a more negative impact.
Notably, this 35% figure represents the highest percentage of Latino voters expressing this viewpoint in the past twenty years.
When Latino voters were asked to prioritize between preventing discrimination against immigrants and creating a pathway to citizenship versus securing the border and stopping illegal immigration, 52% stated that their bigger priority was to prevent discrimination and create a pathway to citizenship.
Meanwhile, 46% believed that it was more important to secure the border and stop immigrants from entering the country illegally.
Other findings
Democrats currently maintain a significant advantage in the race for control of Congress. However, their lead has seen a decline compared to previous election cycles.
According to the poll, a majority of Latino voters, 54%, expressed their preference for a Congress controlled by the Democratic party, while 42% indicated their desire for Republicans to be in charge.
The Democrats’ advantage has been steadily declining since September 2012, when it stood at 45 points. In September 2016, it dropped to 34 points, followed by a further decrease to 26 points in October 2020. Prior to the midterm election in September 2022, the lead had dwindled to 21 points.
A demographic profile of Latino voters
-
- 52% say they primarily speak English, while the rest primarily speak Spanish or speak both languages.
- 56% trace their family’s heritage to Mexico, 16% to Puerto Rico, 11% to Spain, 5% to Cuba and 5% to the Dominican Republic.
- 49% identify as Democratic, 37% as Republican and 13% as independent.
- 32% say they’re liberal, 37% are moderate, and 29% are conservative.
- 49% are Catholic, 21% are Protestant and 28% described themselves as other/none.
The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll, which surveyed 1,000 registered Latino voters from September 16 to 23, provides valuable insights.
Out of the respondents, 53% were reached via cellphone, 10% via landline, and 37% through text-to-web. Interestingly, 20% of the interviews were conducted in Spanish.
It’s important to note that the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, making the results statistically significant.
Source: NBC News
