Vice President Kamala Harris seems to be losing support among two crucial groups within the Democratic base – Latinos and young people. However, political strategists who spoke to Newsweek advise against reading too much into these numbers, as they may not accurately reflect the overall sentiment towards the nominee.
According to recent surveys, Harris is not enjoying the same level of support among Latino voters as previous Democratic nominees. In fact, she is actually trailing among voters aged 18-29 in Wisconsin.
According to a recent NBC News/Telemundo poll conducted between September 16 to 23, Harris’ support among Latinos is the lowest it has been for Democrats in the past four presidential cycles.
Among registered Latino voters, Harris currently enjoys a 14-point lead over former President Donald Trump, with 54 percent support compared to his 40 percent. It is worth noting that 6 percent of respondents remain undecided or unsure about their voting preferences.
President Joe Biden’s popularity among Latinos has seen a decline compared to his previous ratings. Although the current figures show improvement from when he was running for president, they are approximately 10 points lower than his numbers in NBC’s 2020 polling. During that time, 63 percent of Latinos supported his White House bid.
In the presidential election four cycles ago, exit polls reveal that Obama won over young Wisconsin voters with a significant 29-point lead. Interestingly, he managed to secure an equal share of the older American vote, tying with Republican Senator John McCain.
Among Wisconsinites aged 65 and older, Harris currently holds the advantage over Trump, with 55 percent of support compared to Trump’s 40 percent.
This signals a noteworthy change in voter preferences within this age group, which is typically more likely to participate in elections. Traditionally, Democrats have relied on younger voters, while older voters have tended to support the GOP.
Both polls did not bring good news for Harris, but experts advise against drawing strong conclusions from this data due to the higher error margins. The margin of error for the New York Times poll was +/-4 percentage points, while the NBC poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
According to him, there have been multiple surveys indicating that Trump’s support is low among older voters but unexpectedly high among Latino voters.
According to him, the results are a combination of positive and negative outcomes.
Latino advocacy groups have also brought attention to an alternative poll that presents a significantly contrasting view of the race.
Entravision recently released its findings, showing Harris leading by a larger margin with 56 percent support, compared to Trump’s 33 percent. The survey, which was conducted between September 11 and 20, included 500 Latino voters from across the country.
According to Proaño, it is primarily acculturated Latinos from the 3rd, 4th, and 5th generations, as he mentioned to Newsweek.
“The Entravision and NBC/Telemundo surveys show a significant swing of 24 points,” he commented on the polls.
“Something is seriously amiss.”
Proaño believes that in the end, it will be women who save Harris from the decline in support among Latino men: “Harris’ ability to secure a majority will depend on Latina voters, who will counterbalance the support that Trump is receiving from Latino men.”
Political consultant Jay Townsend concurred that the polls conducted by NBC and the Times could potentially be outliers.
“It’s important not to draw sweeping conclusions from a single survey that only represents a small group of voters,” Townsend cautioned. She pointed out that young voters from Wisconsin accounted for just 12 percent of the entire Times/Siena survey.
“Likewise, we should be careful not to overinterpret the preferences of voters over 65, even though there is some additional evidence suggesting a shift towards Harris in recent polls among seniors.”
He highlighted the challenge faced by both parties in engaging young voters.
Harris’ popularity among young voters is much stronger than Biden’s, according to the recent Youth Poll conducted by Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics. The poll revealed that Harris currently holds a significant 31-point lead among young voters nationwide. This is a significant improvement compared to March, when Biden had a 13-point advantage in the same age group.
According to Della Volpe, Trump’s support among young men has increased by 10 points compared to four years ago. This rise in support cannot be dismissed as a mere coincidence.
Trump has invested significant amounts of money to engage and communicate with young men. It seems that he recognized the importance of expanding his support base and saw an opportunity to do so among first-time voters, particularly younger men.
Source: Newsweek