A new, in-depth analysis of Donald Trump’s proposed tax policies for the 2024 presidential campaign reveals that they would lead to annual tax hikes for 95% of Americans while giving significant breaks to the wealthiest 5%.
The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) published its study on Monday, calling it “the most comprehensive analysis” of Trump’s tax plan.
The proposal includes extending his controversial 2017 tax law, exempting tips from taxes, cutting the corporate tax rate further, and imposing a 20% tariff on most imports—except for China, which would face a 60% tariff.
“If these proposals were enacted in 2026, the richest 1% would see an average tax cut of around $36,300, while the next richest 4% would receive an average cut of about $7,200,” ITEP found.
“All other groups would face tax increases, with the middle 20% seeing an average hike of $1,500 and the lowest-income 20% seeing a rise of about $800.”
ITEP also pointed out that Trump’s proposed tariffs would likely raise prices for consumers, effectively negating any benefits from extending his 2017 tax law, which is set to expire at the end of next year.
As a percentage of income, working-class families would bear the brunt of the tax increases under Trump’s plan, with the poorest 20% seeing an increase of 4.8% of their income, while the top 5% would receive tax cuts.
The study also noted that Trump’s proposed corporate tax cuts would primarily benefit stockholders, who are disproportionately wealthy and white, contributing to greater inequality in the U.S. and even sending some of the benefits to foreign investors.
ITEP’s executive director, Amy Hanauer, emphasized that the findings are clear: “Trump’s tax proposals would significantly raise taxes on regular Americans while delivering more cuts to corporations and the wealthy.”
Trump has made tax cuts and tariffs central to his 2024 campaign, promising wealthy donors and supporters another substantial tax break if elected.
In contrast, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris advocates for increasing the corporate tax rate, a move economists believe would slightly boost economic growth and reduce inequality.
Multiple analyses, including ITEP’s, have concluded that Trump’s tax proposals would be highly regressive and costly.
The American Prospect recently estimated the total cost of Trump’s tax plan could range from $8.5 trillion to $9.75 trillion over the next decade, far exceeding the cost of his 2017 law.
Trump has claimed that tariffs could fund both the tax cuts and investments in areas like childcare.
However, The American Prospect’s David Dayen noted last month that even the most aggressive tariff Trump has proposed—20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods—wouldn’t cover the increased debt from extending the 2017 tax cuts, let alone fund the new giveaways aimed at securing votes.
