Voters are now more likely to experience a prolonged waiting period after Election Day before learning the identity of their next president.
Experts predict that Georgia could be the first battleground state to be called, possibly as early as midnight. However, there may be delays in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that extend beyond the voting date on the calendar.
Unpredictable factors, such as multiple hurricanes in the Southeast, could further complicate the situation.
According to Michael Hanmer, director of the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement at the University of Maryland, this situation is one that requires us to expect the unexpected.
It is essential to maintain patience when it comes to ensuring that the individuals responsible for managing the election process are able to carry out their duties effectively and accurately.
States with Potential Post-Election Day Delays
This Article Includes
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania has developed a reputation for taking its time when it comes to counting votes, as evidenced by the prolonged wait for the final results of the 2020 presidential election.
This year, the battle between Trump and Vice President Harris in the Keystone State could indicate another challenging path to determining the winner. A significant factor in this race is the emergence of “early in-person” voting, a more recent choice for residents.
These votes, treated as absentee ballots, will require additional time to be counted, according to David Becker, an election lawyer and co-founder of the Center for Election and Innovation Research.
According to him, Pennsylvania recently implemented early absentee and no-excuse mail voting, making it a relatively new practice in the state.
According to Becker, election workers will be working tirelessly, ensuring transparency by reporting batches as soon as they are completed. This increased scrutiny is due to the narrow margin in the previous cycle, with Trump even campaigning in Biden’s hometown of Scranton this week.
According to Becker, if there are a significant number of mail ballots and the race is neck and neck, it could potentially take a while to determine the final outcome.
Wisconsin
According to state law, voters in the Badger State can now cast their ballots via mail from October 22 to November 3. This new provision aims to provide more flexibility to voters, going beyond the traditional early mail-in system.
However, experts argue that there are some drawbacks to this approach. Although election officials may have a substantial number of ballots before the election on Tuesday, they are not permitted to begin counting and processing them until November 5th.
According to Becker, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania stand out among swing states as exceptions. He explains that these states are unable to start processing the ballots until Election Day, which will inevitably lead to some delays.
According to Derek Tisler, counsel in the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center for Justice, election officials in Wisconsin have been urging their state Legislature to permit preprocessing of mail-in ballots. However, until this is implemented, voters should anticipate a slower timeline.
Tisler emphasized that there is nothing inherently flawed with the tabulation process. He also advised against individuals or candidates using wait times across the country as a reason for concern.
According to the expert, election workers are currently carrying out their tasks using the same procedures as before. However, these procedures may vary slightly from state to state, as each state has the authority to establish its own election protocols. As a result, the timelines for these procedures may also differ to some extent.
“Although we may wish for immediate results, it is widely acknowledged that ensuring accuracy and security should be the primary focus for election workers in these states.”
Arizona
In Arizona, there is a high possibility that hundreds of thousands of mail ballots will be delivered on November 5th, which only heightens the excitement and anticipation surrounding Election Day.
According to Rachel Orey, director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s Elections Project, the state offers generous provisions to assist election officials in preparing and processing ballots in advance.
However, this preprocessing will not significantly impact the large influx of ballots expected on Election Day. As a result, the tabulation process may be prolonged, leading to increased anticipation for potential delays.
According to Lonna Atkeson, a political science professor at Florida State University, Arizona could potentially be the state that everyone is eagerly anticipating.
One of the key factors to consider when looking at several states is the narrow margin between Harris and Trump. In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona, the polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill show that the two rivals are separated by a small fraction of a percentage point.
According to Paul Gronke, the director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College, the accuracy of my predictions will depend on how well we understand the competitiveness of the race.
He said that if the race is extremely close, both across the country and in particular states, the results may be quite opaque and it may take a while to gain clarity on the outcome.
North Carolina
The 2020 cycle was plagued by challenges caused by COVID-19, and this year, the emergence of Hurricane Helene and the potential for more storms has introduced another layer of uncertainty stemming from natural disasters.
The pandemic has brought about longer wait times for election results as officials have had to handle a surge of mail-in ballots. Although this year is expected to see slightly lower numbers of mail votes, it is still difficult to predict as early voting begins.
North Carolina experienced the wrath of Hurricane Helene during its final stages. Although officials remain confident in their ability to maintain the voting schedule, the storm’s destruction poses a potential obstacle for mail-in voting.
According to Gronke, election officials will still carry out their responsibilities to verify, process, and count the ballots, but they may face limitations in terms of resources that could affect the speed at which they can complete these tasks and provide results by 8 p.m. on election night.
According to Becker, the state of North Carolina remains uncertain in terms of the upcoming election. He explains that election officials in western North Carolina are facing legitimate challenges and are still trying to navigate through them. Despite their efforts, the election is expected to be very close.
He reminded us to have patience and understanding, acknowledging that it may take them some time to complete the task at hand.
Nevada
During the previous election cycle, the margins in Nevada were not considered to be particularly close compared to other battleground states. Joe Biden emerged as the winner with a lead of approximately 3 percentage points.
Both Harris and Trump have set their sights on the Silver State. It is said that progressive voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate there, have shown a growing affinity for Harris. Additionally, her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, made a recent appearance in Reno, further solidifying their campaign’s presence in Nevada.
On Friday, the Trump campaign is focusing its efforts on the same city, as the former president is set to host a rally.
According to Becker, Nevada could potentially experience the effects until Wednesday.
In addition, Nevada and its neighboring state, Arizona, are positioned to the west of other states that are closely monitored during elections. As a result, the polls in Nevada and Arizona will close after the polls in East Coast states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Georgia
Georgia holds immense significance for both presidential candidates in their pursuit of securing the necessary 270 electoral votes. Just like in the previous election, Trump would face considerable challenges in his bid to secure the presidency without winning Georgia.
Americans have reason to feel optimistic about the newer swing state on the map. Strategists anticipate that it may be called early in the battleground lineup, potentially even before any other closely contested state.
According to Becker, it is highly likely that Georgia will be the first swing state to be called, unless there is an extremely close margin.
“They have implemented excellent policies that facilitate both early voting and in-person voting. The percentage of mail-in ballots in Georgia is expected to decrease to approximately 10 percent, as they will be preprocessed.”
“I anticipate that we’ll receive comprehensive election updates from Georgia around midnight on election night,” he expressed.