New signs indicate a close race in Wisconsin, which is causing concern for incumbent Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin. She is facing a challenge from Eric Hovde, who is backed by Trump. This development has given Republicans hope in their bid to gain control of the upper chamber in the upcoming elections.
Wisconsin is known for its highly competitive political races, often decided by narrow margins of 25,000 votes or less, according to Nation. As the campaign enters its final three-and-a-half weeks, it was always expected that the race would become tighter.
According to recent surveys conducted by Cook’s Swing State Project, Baldwin’s lead in the Senate race has decreased since August. In August, she had a 7-point lead, but last week it narrowed down to just 2 points.
This makes it the closest Senate race among the five battlegrounds that were tested. Polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill also reflect a similar trend, showing Baldwin currently leading by 3.5 points. However, this is a noticeable drop compared to early September when she had a lead of around 7 points.
According to Baldwin, she mentioned in an interview with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that her internal polls indicate a narrow margin, with her leading her Republican opponent by 2 points.
This confirms the concerns raised in a recent Axios story about the increasing worries among Democrats in the Senate race. Hovde’s campaign also reported a similar 1-2 point difference in their own recent internal polling, as confirmed by a campaign spokesperson.
According to a political analyst, Baldwin may not have the same level of support as she did in the previous two elections. The momentum on the ground seems to be favoring Hovde.
In this election cycle, Baldwin’s seat has become a significant opportunity for the GOP to gain ground.
Initially, there were concerns within the party when Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) decided not to run, but now a strong contender has emerged in the form of Hovde, a successful businessman and millionaire from the Madison area.
Hovde has quickly established himself as a formidable candidate in this closely contested race in a crucial battleground state.
Hovde made a bid for the Senate in 2012 but was defeated in the primary by former Gov. Tommy Thompson (R), who ultimately lost to Baldwin. However, Hovde is now running for Senate once again, this time with the support of Trump. One advantage Hovde has is the ability to largely finance his own campaign.
The state of Wisconsin is about to witness a significant shift in the political ad landscape as the Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent super PAC led by advisers to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), has recently invested a staggering $17 million in advertising, as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Republicans are poised to disrupt the Democrats’ advertising advantage in the near future, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel.
According to David Axelrod, Baldwin is currently engaged in a close competition in Wisconsin, and the Republicans have recently injected a significant amount of money into the race. Axelrod emphasizes that the financial advantage in the final stretch could potentially sway the outcome of this race.
According to OpenSecrets’ latest July Federal Election Commission filings, Baldwin has raised and spent more than her counterparts.
According to other polls, there is some disagreement with the Cook findings and internal polls, indicating that the Democrat may have a stronger advantage. For instance, a recent poll conducted by Marquette University Law School showed that Baldwin was leading her challenger by 7 points.
According to recent surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University and Emerson College, it is worth noting that Trump is currently leading slightly in the White House race in the state.
These findings conflict with the results reported by Marquette. The averages compiled by Decision Desk HQ also show the Republican candidate leading by a margin of 0.1 points.
In 2016, Trump narrowly won the Badger State by less than a point. However, President Biden was able to flip it back into the Democrats’ column in 2020, securing a similarly slim margin.
According to Zimmerman, the upcoming elections are going to be a tight race both at the top of the ticket and in the Senate race. He believes that these two races are closely intertwined, more so than people may currently recognize.
A victory by Hovde on November 5th could potentially boost Republicans towards gaining the majority in the Senate. The GOP only requires two seats to gain control, and there are other vulnerable Democratic incumbents, including Sen. Jon Tester who is likely to be ousted by Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana, and Sen. Sherrod Brown facing a toss-up race against Republican Bernie Moreno. Additionally, the open Senate seat in Michigan is also considered a toss-up.
According to Brandon Scholz, a retired Republican strategist in the state, the outcome of the race will be determined by independent voters. As Democrats and Republicans solidify their support for their respective candidates, the influence of independent voters becomes even more significant.
Baldwin and Hovde are scheduled to engage in a debate next week. This highly anticipated showdown presents a crucial opportunity for both candidates to make a lasting impression on undecided voters and potentially sway their support.
According to Scholz, Wisconsin is a highly partisan state that is deeply divided. He believes that in the remaining few weeks, it will be the undecided voters, including ticket-splitters, independents, and those who have mixed feelings about the candidates, who will ultimately determine the outcome of the election.
Scholz emphasizes that the race is extremely tight, and the decision of these swing voters will be crucial in determining whether Harris, Trump, Hovde, or Baldwin will win.
