Republicans are investing heavily in Wisconsin’s closely watched Senate race, seeing a chance to unseat incumbent Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin.
Losing to GOP nominee Eric Hovde in Wisconsin would pose a significant challenge for Democrats in maintaining their majority, especially when considering the national landscape where Republicans have fewer seats to defend this year.
Republicans are feeling optimistic about the race, as they see it as a jump ball at the moment. Alec Zimmerman, a Republican strategist who previously worked on Sen. Ron Johnson’s successful 2022 campaign, expressed this sentiment.
According to AdImpact, a tracker of campaign ad spending, as of Monday, Democrats have spent $93 million on advertising in the Wisconsin Senate race, surpassing Republicans who have spent $69 million.
Notably, Baldwin’s campaign alone constitutes over a third of all Democratic spending on advertisements, while Hovde has relied more heavily on external organizations for funding.
Republicans have outspent Democrats in advertising as the election approaches. They have reserved $21 million in ad spots between Monday and November 5, while Democrats have reserved $15 million.
The majority of the additional spending from Republicans comes from the Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, which has reserved $13.1 million in ad spots.
Baldwin, while on the campaign trail in western Wisconsin alongside vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, expressed her lack of surprise regarding the current state of the race. In a statement to The Associated Press, she stated, “I expected this outcome.”
“We were aware from the beginning that the race would become more competitive,” Baldwin expressed. “That’s why I’ve been tirelessly working every single day to unite the people of Wisconsin in support of my campaign. … I firmly believe that we possess the determination, momentum, and compelling message necessary to secure victory in the upcoming month.”
According to Democratic strategist Melissa Baldauff, Hovde has effectively gained the support of the Republican base and possesses sufficient funds to promote his message, including the assistance of outside funding. Hovde, in fact, has personally loaned the campaign a substantial sum of $13 million to be utilized for the race.
According to Baldauff, one of her strong points that distinguishes this race from others is her ability to be true to her word and make her presence known throughout Wisconsin. Baldauff expressed, “The fact that people recognize her and she follows through with her promises sets her apart from other Senate races across the country.”
According to Zimmerman, Wisconsin has always been a state where elections are closely contested. It is known for its fifty-fifty split between political parties, but the current situation is different. Zimmerman believes that the recent election results are a reflection of the state returning to its usual pattern of closely contested races.
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In four out of the last six presidential elections, Wisconsin had incredibly close margins, with the winning candidate prevailing by less than a percentage point. The races for U.S. Senate in the state have also been relatively tight, although not as close as the presidential contests.
For instance, Senator Baldwin comfortably secured her first victory in 2012 with a lead of nearly 6 points, and in 2018, she won by an impressive margin of almost 11 points. However, in 2022, Senator Johnson’s re-election was a nail-biter, with him narrowly clinching a third term by just a single point.
Baldwin is utilizing a familiar approach in her current campaign, visiting both conservative and liberal areas of the state to showcase her track record of advocating for Wisconsin farmers and the middle class. In fact, she has scheduled visits to all the major media markets in the state for this week alone.
Baldwin’s commitment to bipartisanship is evident in her achievement of earning the endorsement from the conservative Wisconsin Farm Bureau. This recognition highlights her efforts in supporting and advancing the interests of the state’s agriculture and dairy industries.
It is worth noting that Baldwin’s endorsement win is a significant milestone for a Democratic candidate in a statewide race, as it marks the first time in over two decades that a Democrat has received this endorsement.
Baldwin has criticized Hovde for being a wealthy outsider who is disconnected from the needs of the people. She claims that he wants to reduce funding for Social Security and Medicare, dismantle the Affordable Care Act, and advocate for a nationwide ban on abortion.
The campaign advertisements have highlighted Hovde’s position as the CEO of H Bancorp and its main subsidiary, Sunwest Bank, based in Utah. Additionally, they have emphasized his ownership of a luxurious $7 million estate in Laguna Beach, California.
Hovde, who was born in Madison, proudly owns a house there and firmly asserts that he has never resided in California on a full-time basis.
Hovde’s stance on abortion has evolved since his initial Senate campaign in 2012, a fact that Baldwin has highlighted in one of her ads. Hovde currently maintains that he would not support a federal ban on abortion and believes that the matter should be decided by individual states.
Hovde portrays Baldwin, a seasoned politician with almost four decades of experience in elected office, as someone who has failed to take sufficient action to address border security and boost the economy. He criticizes her for evading direct engagement with voters by only participating in a single debate, scheduled to be aired live on Friday night.