According to a recent analysis of advertising data, Democrats have spent more than Republicans on television advertisements in the key races that will determine control of the US House of Representatives.
The states of California and New York have witnessed the highest levels of spending by both parties during the first full month after the primary season concluded.
California and New York, despite being solidly liberal states overall, contain numerous fiercely contested House seats that played a crucial role in Republicans securing their slim majority in the previous election cycle.
Outside organizations are exerting a significant impact on the House race, as two prominent super PACs from both parties combined make up approximately 25% of the $378 million spent on advertisements.
In addition, a wildcard factor comes in the form of a super PAC funded by cryptocurrency interests, which has contributed an additional $15 million to the advertising battle in support of a bipartisan group of pro-crypto candidates.
The advertisements from major spenders reflect the pressing concerns of voters, such as the economy, which has always been a top priority. Other important issues addressed include abortion rights, immigration, and crime.
California and New York
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Republicans in both states are currently defending several seats held by lawmakers who narrowly won their contests in 2022. However, if we were to redraw the district lines based on the current configuration, Joe Biden would have carried these seats two years ago.
The GOP is also working to retain several competitive seats in California, particularly in areas that supported Biden in 2020.
Among the vulnerable members are two congressmen from the Central Valley – Reps. David Valadao of the 22nd District and John Duarte of the 13th District. Also included are Reps.
Mike Garcia of the 27th District and Michelle Steel of the 45th District, both in the Los Angeles area, as well as Rep. Kevin Calvert, whose 41st District in the Inland Empire narrowly supported Donald Trump four years ago.
California and New York have become the center of attention as highly competitive contests approach. Ad money from outside groups has flooded into these states, while grassroots donors have responded to battleground appeals, contributing to the candidates’ increased ad spending. In fact, California has seen twice as much House ad spending in the month following the last primaries compared to any other state.
Democrats outspent Republicans in 17 out of the top 20 House contests for ad spending between September 11 and October 10. They collectively outspent Republicans by a total of over $30 million.
Republicans outspent their opponents in three key races: Nebraska’s 2nd District, California’s 22nd District, and Iowa’s 3rd District. These races are particularly crucial for the party as they are defending their seats in these districts.
In several key races, there are notable advertising leads established by Democrats within the first month after the primaries.
These races include D’Esposito’s seat in New York, Duarte’s seat in California, Pennsylvania’s 7th District held by three-term Democratic Rep. Susan Wild, Colorado’s 8th District represented by freshman Democrat Yadira Caraveo, and Washington’s 3rd District where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez is seeking re-election.
The Democrats’ advertising leads in these races range from approximately $3 million to $4 million.
In the realm of House races, a substantial portion of the ad spending was allocated to a handful of prominent outside groups from both parties.
One such group, Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading House GOP super PAC, invested roughly $60 million, accounting for 16% of the total expenditure during the month. On the other hand, House Majority PAC, the Democratic counterpart, contributed approximately $35.5 million, representing 9% of the overall ad spending for House races over the course of 30 days.
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In the first full month since the last primaries, Congressional Leadership Fund and House Majority PAC collectively accounted for over a quarter of all ad spending. Their TV ads reflect the messaging priorities of both parties.
In the span of 30 days, Congressional Leadership Fund invested approximately $42 million in broadcast TV advertisements, with 39% of the funds allocated to ads focusing on immigration, which was identified as the most significant issue in their advertising campaign.
Furthermore, CLF dedicated over a quarter of its total ad budget to commercials addressing crime and taxes. This strategic allocation of funds highlights the importance placed on these key topics by the organization.
House Majority PAC, on the other hand, invested over $25 million in broadcast TV ads during the same time frame. The predominant focus of their ads was on abortion rights, accounting for approximately 71% of their broadcast TV spending.
Additionally, HMP allocated nearly 40% of their TV ad budget to spots that addressed the issue of crime, with many of them cautioning against the criminalization of abortion. Ads centered around character accounted for approximately 17% of their overall spending.
Fairshake, a super PAC funded by cryptocurrency interests, has emerged as a powerful force in the campaign. With a whopping $15 million spent on ads, the organization is backing a bipartisan group of industry-friendly candidates in 17 races.
These candidates are praised for their economic policies and strong legislative records on various crucial issues.
With only three weeks left until the 2024 election, the focus is still on the House races in California and New York, which are expected to have a significant impact. Meanwhile, Democrats have maintained an overall advantage in future ad reservations.
From October 11 until Election Day, advertisers in House races have made bookings worth over $441 million. Democrats are currently leading Republicans with a total of $252 million in ad reservations, compared to the Republicans’ $183 million.
Over the last three and a half weeks, House races in California were projected to receive over $89 million in advertising, while races in New York were expected to see over $50 million. Combined, these two states accounted for approximately one-third of the total ad spending aimed at the final stretch of the battle for the House.