According to a recent analysis of advertising data from the first full month following the end of primary season, Democrats have invested more in television advertisements compared to Republicans in the races that will play a pivotal role in determining control of the US House of Representatives. The highest spending by both parties has been observed in California and New York.
California and New York, despite being heavily Democratic states overall, have numerous highly contested House seats. These seats played a crucial role in Republicans securing their slim majority two years ago.
Outside groups are exerting a significant influence on the House race, as two prominent super PACs from both parties together make up approximately 25% of the $378 million spent on ads.
Additionally, a wildcard in the form of a super PAC supported by cryptocurrency interests, which supports a bipartisan group of pro-crypto candidates, injected an additional $15 million into the advertising competition.
Top spenders’ advertisements reflect the pressing concerns of voters, encompassing the economy, abortion rights, immigration, and crime.
California and New York
Between September 11 and October 10, California and New York accounted for approximately 29% of the total ad spending directed towards House races. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales currently rates ten House races in California and six in New York as competitive.
Republicans in both states are currently defending several seats that are held by lawmakers who won close contests in 2022. However, under the current lines, these seats would have been carried by Joe Biden two years earlier.
In New York, the 4th Congressional District, currently held by freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, along with two upstate seats represented by first-term lawmakers Marc Molinaro (19th District) and Mike Lawler (17th District) are included.
The GOP is also working to retain several competitive seats in California, particularly in areas that supported Biden in 2020. Among the vulnerable members are two congressmen from the Central Valley, namely Reps. David Valadao of the 22nd District and John Duarte of the 13th District.
Additionally, Reps. Mike Garcia of the 27th District and Michelle Steel of the 45th District, both located in the Los Angeles area, are also on the list. Rep. Kevin Calvert, whose 41st District in the Inland Empire narrowly supported Donald Trump four years ago, is another name to watch.
California and New York have attracted significant amounts of ad money from outside groups as they gear up for a series of highly competitive contests.
Grassroots donors have also responded to battleground appeals, contributing to the candidates’ increased ad spending. In fact, California witnessed double the amount of House ad spending in the month following the last primaries compared to any other state.
During the period from September 11 to October 10, Democrats took the lead in ad spending in 17 out of the top 20 House contests, outspending Republicans by a total of over $30 million.
Republicans dominated the ad spending in three key races: Nebraska’s 2nd District, California’s 22nd, and Iowa’s 3rd. These are all seats that the party is currently defending.
In several races, including New York’s D’Esposito seat, California’s Duarte seat, Pennsylvania’s 7th District represented by three-term Democrat Susan Wild, Colorado’s 8th District represented by freshman Democrat Yadira Caraveo, and Washington’s 3rd District where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez is seeking a second term, Democrats have taken a significant lead in advertising spending in the month following the primaries. Their advertising leads range from approximately $3 million to $4 million.
In the realm of House races, a substantial portion of the ad spending can be attributed to a handful of prominent outside groups from both parties.
One such group is the Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading House GOP super PAC, which allocated close to $60 million in the past month. This amounts to approximately 16% of the overall ad spending during this period.
On the other side of the aisle, the Democratic counterpart, House Majority PAC, contributed around $35.5 million, accounting for roughly 9% of the total ad spending dedicated to House races over the course of 30 days.
Top advertisers and issues
During the first full month since the last primaries, Congressional Leadership Fund and House Majority PAC collectively accounted for over a quarter of all ad spending. The TV ads they produced reflect the messaging priorities of both parties.
During the course of 30 days, Congressional Leadership Fund allocated approximately $42 million towards broadcast TV ads, as reported by AdImpact data.
Out of this amount, 39% of the budget was dedicated to ads that centered around immigration, which was identified as the most prominent issue in their advertising campaign.
Additionally, CLF also allocated over a quarter of their total ad budget to commercials that focused on crime and taxes.
House Majority PAC, on the other hand, allocated over $25 million for broadcast TV ads during the same timeframe. Interestingly, the super PAC’s TV ads were predominantly focused on abortion rights, making up approximately 71% of their total spend.
Additionally, they dedicated nearly 40% of their TV ad budget to highlighting the issue of crime, often emphasizing the importance of not criminalizing abortion. Ads centered around character accounted for about 17% of their spending.
Fairshake, a super PAC funded by cryptocurrency interests, has taken on a significant role in the campaign. They have spent almost $15 million on ads supporting a bipartisan group of candidates in 17 races. These advertisements highlight the candidates’ favorable economic policies and their track records on other important issues.
Campaigns and outside groups often schedule advertising time well in advance, with the understanding that these reservations may be modified as candidates and their supporters make adjustments to their bookings and allocate more funds toward their campaigns.
With only three weeks left before the 2024 election, the focus of the House races in California and New York is expected to remain prominent. Meanwhile, Democrats currently hold an advantage in the remaining future ad reservations.
Between October 11 and Election Day, advertisers in House races have made ad reservations totaling over $441 million. Democrats are leading Republicans in ad spending, with $252 million compared to $183 million.
In the crucial final stretch, House races in California were on track to receive over $89 million worth of advertising, while New York was projected to receive more than $50 million. Combined, these two states accounted for approximately one-third of the total ad spending targeting the battle for the House.
