Eric Hovde, a Republican candidate, finds himself at a crucial juncture as he prepares for the first Wisconsin Senate debate. Recent indications suggest that he is gaining ground against the incumbent Democratic Senator, Tammy Baldwin. This race is considered to be one of the most fiercely contested contests in the country.
In the battle for the Senate majority, the Trump-backed Republican is narrowing the gap, fueling GOP hopes for a Badger State pickup. The rivals will face off as polling indicates a close race between them.
In the 2012 election cycle, Hovde, a successful businessman and wealthy individual from Madison, made a bid for the Senate seat that Baldwin eventually claimed.
However, Hovde faced defeat in the Republican primary. While Democrats may not view Hovde as a formidable contender this time, with his strong endorsement from former President Trump and significant self-funding, voices from both sides of the aisle recognize that the race is now in toss-up territory.
According to Bill McCoshen, a Republican strategist based in Wisconsin, the race is currently tied. The Cook Political Report recently adjusted the race, moving it away from the Democrats.
According to Cook’s Swing State Project surveys, Senator Baldwin’s 7-point lead in August has reduced to just a 2-point lead this month. This shift has made the race one of only three toss-up Senate contests.
The polling averages from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill also indicate a narrowing gap, with Baldwin now leading by 2.8 percentage points compared to 3.5 points last week and 7 points back in August.
Hovde’s campaign has confirmed that recent internal polls have shown a slim margin of 1 or 2 points. Baldwin also acknowledged that her own internal polls indicate a very close race.
The Republican National Senatorial Committee (NRSC) released a polling memo, which was obtained by The Hill and reported by Politico, revealing that Hovde is narrowly leading Baldwin by 1 point in a head-to-head matchup. However, when other candidates are included in the race, Hovde and Baldwin are tied.
Outside money is flowing into the Wisconsin race as Republicans find hope in the numbers. The Senate Leadership Fund, a prominent GOP super PAC, has recently provided a significant amount of funding to support Hovde.
However, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings, Baldwin still maintains a fundraising advantage. Despite this, Hovde ended the third quarter with slightly more cash on hand.
According to McCoshen, Hovde has not only invested a significant amount of his own money but has also received substantial investments from third parties such as the Senate Leadership Fund and the NRSC.
These investments, totaling over $20 million, reflect the confidence these organizations have in Hovde’s campaign and their belief that there is a real opportunity for him to succeed. With this kind of financial support, Hovde definitely has a fighting chance in the race.
Despite acknowledging that it’s a closely contested race, Democrats remain confident that Baldwin will successfully defend her position against her challenger in the upcoming November election.
According to Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki, Wisconsin is no stranger to close elections, and Tammy Baldwin approached this race with the mindset that it would be a tough battle.
In an interview, Zepecki criticized Hovde’s campaign, describing it as lackluster, and accused the Republican candidate of trying to emulate the “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) style associated with President Trump.
As Hovde attempts to depict Baldwin as a career politician, Democrats have accused Hovde of being a carpetbagger and have criticized his previous advocacy for overturning Roe v. Wade.
According to Zepecki, the race is narrowing based on a couple of polls. This comes as no surprise to those of us who live in Wisconsin, as we have always anticipated a close race. Nonetheless, we remain unfazed and continue with our work.
Hovde and Baldwin are preparing for their first and potentially final debate. The stakes are high as the Senate race tightens and the battle for control becomes more intense. It’s worth noting that Hovde has been advocating for additional debates to take place.
According to a statement from the Baldwin campaign spokesperson Andrew Mamo, the current senator from Wisconsin demonstrates her commitment to representing the voters by being present, attentive, and effective in delivering results for them and their families.
Furthermore, Mamo emphasized that Tammy Baldwin is willing to collaborate with anyone to achieve these goals. In contrast, Mamo depicted Eric Hovde as an out-of-touch California bank owner who spreads falsehoods about Tammy, disrespects the people of Wisconsin, and advocates for an extreme policy agenda.
According to spokesperson Zach Bannon, Hovde’s campaign plans to utilize the debate platform to highlight what the people of Wisconsin are already aware of – that Tammy Baldwin is radical, extreme, and not the right choice for the state. The campaign believes that it’s time for a change.
The contenders are anticipated to engage in heated debates on issues that have ignited discussions in previous Senate races in different states. These topics include the economy, immigration, and reproductive rights.
Both candidates will employ their most effective attack strategies during the Friday night program. Although the viewership may not be extensive among Wisconsinites, experts predict that the candidates will strive to create viral moments to enhance their public image or criticize their rival leading up to Election Day.
According to McCoshen, any mistake made on the debate stage will have a significant impact on the final days of the campaign. Given that the candidates are neck and neck, even the slightest misstep could make a substantial difference.
According to the most recent averages from Decision Desk HQ, President Trump is currently leading Vice President Harris by 0.5 percentage points in Wisconsin. In the 2016 election, Trump won the state by a narrow margin, and President Biden was able to secure a narrow victory for Democrats in 2020.
According to McCoshen, for Hovde to have a chance at winning, Trump’s victory is crucial. McCoshen believes that if Kamala Harris were to win Wisconsin, it would be highly unlikely for Hovde to pull off an upset.
Republicans are only two seats away from gaining control of the Senate, and they have a good chance of doing so with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I) in West Virginia and the vulnerability of Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana.
If they manage to hold on to their existing seats and avoid any losses, this could secure them the majority in the chamber. Additionally, potential pickups in states like Wisconsin could further strengthen their position.
