According to the latest model released by election analytics website 338Canada, Donald Trump has lost the slight advantage he had in the critical swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin over the past few days.
In the latest update from 338Canada, it is revealed that Kamala Harris has gained a slight lead over Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania, while both candidates are tied in Wisconsin.
Additionally, the analysis predicts that Harris is the favored candidate to win the national election. This is a significant shift from the previous analysis released on October 14, which had Trump as the predicted winner in all three states and the overall election.
According to the latest 338Canada model released on Thursday, Kamala Harris has a 52 percent chance of winning the November election, while Trump’s chances are at 47 percent.
The model predicts that Harris will secure 270 Electoral College votes, just edging out her Republican rival who is projected to receive 268 votes.
In Pennsylvania, Harris has a 52 percent chance of victory, while Trump stands at 48 percent, according to the model. In Michigan, Harris is given a 51 percent chance of winning, with Trump at 49 percent. The race in Wisconsin is evenly matched, with both candidates having a 50 percent chance of victory.
The tables turned for Trump as per 338Canada’s October 14 model. In this previous model, the Republican candidate was considered the favorite with a 51 percent chance of winning, compared to 49 percent for Harris.
According to the October 14 model, Trump was leading in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, with a 52 percent, 51 percent, and 53 percent chance of winning each battleground state, respectively.
338Canada utilized a combination of opinion polls, electoral history, and demographic data to formulate its election projections.
According to a recent analysis of polling data by FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris is currently leading Donald Trump by 2.4 percent in the overall vote, with 48.5 percent in favor of Harris and 46.1 percent in favor of Trump. It is important to note that despite winning the popular vote, a candidate can still lose the election, as exemplified by Hillary Clinton’s experience in 2016.
On Thursday, Trump gave a speech at the Al Smith charity dinner in New York, where he made fun of Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim Walz. While Harris was not present at the event, as she was busy campaigning in the crucial swing state of Wisconsin, she did participate in a comedy sketch with Molly Shannon, a former cast member of “Saturday Night Live.”