The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued a Day 2 Convective Outlook, which emphasizes the possibility of severe thunderstorms from the Central Plains to the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma.
Severe thunderstorms are expected to occur, especially in the afternoon and early evening hours on Monday, primarily in western and central Kansas.
An upper-level low pressure system, currently situated over the Four Corners region, is predicted to move northeastward across the Central Plains.
As this system advances, it will strengthen mid-level flow and bring in colder temperatures, creating conditions for potential severe weather. There is a weak surface low projected to move through Kansas, accompanied by a moderate amount of low-level moisture.
Showers and thunderstorms are already occurring from the Texas Panhandle to far eastern Colorado and western Kansas on Monday morning, driven by warm advection.
While these storms are mostly expected to be in a linear pattern, there is enough vertical shear to create organized updrafts, which could lead to the formation of large hail.
Severe weather is expected to pose a greater risk in the afternoon due to diurnal heating. As temperatures rise to the low to mid-70s and dewpoints remain in the low 60s, conditions may become favorable for discrete supercells that can produce various severe hazards, including tornadoes.
The most critical period for severe activity is projected to be between 4 PM and 10 PM, especially in the area spanning from central Kansas to south-central Nebraska.
