Republican businessman Eric Hovde remains behind incumbent Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race with less than two weeks until election day.
However, recent developments have narrowed the margins to the extent that the contest is now considered a “toss-up” by a reputable nonpartisan forecaster. Recognizing the potential for victory, the GOP is now investing additional funds in an effort to flip the seat.
According to a recent survey conducted by the Trafalgar group, sponsored by the Republican party, Hovde is currently leading by one percentage point, with 49% of likely voters supporting him compared to 48% for Baldwin.
However, it is important to note that all nonpartisan polls published in the month leading up to this survey consistently show Baldwin in the lead, with margins ranging between one and five percentage points.
According to a recent survey conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies and The Telegraph, the incumbent candidate is leading by one point, with 45% of likely voters supporting them, compared to 44% for their opponent.
Another survey conducted by The Bullfinch Group among 600 likely voters also shows the Democrat candidate in the lead, with a four-point advantage, garnering 49% of the support compared to Hovde’s 45%.
Encouraged by the trend, Republicans are making significant investments in Hovde, a prominent real estate mogul. According to a recent report by the Associated Press, Republicans have allocated a staggering $21 million for advertising during the last three weeks of the campaign, surpassing the $15 million in spots reserved by Democrats.
Most of the spending originates from the Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee headed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The PAC has allocated $13.1 million for ad spots. However, McConnell has faced criticism from fellow Republicans who accuse him of showing favoritism in distributing funds.
“The momentum is on my side,” Hovde confidently declared during an event in Milwaukee in early October. He expressed his determination to win the race and emphasized that he would stay focused on what truly matters.
Throughout the campaign, Democrats have consistently outspent Republicans on advertising in the Wisconsin race. According to AdImpact, which tracks campaign ad spending, Democrats have spent $93 million, while Republicans have spent $69 million.
It is worth noting that Baldwin’s campaign alone accounts for more than a third of all Democratic spending on ads. On the other hand, Hovde has relied more heavily on outside groups for advertising support.
The outcome of the race is expected to be determined by extremely narrow margins. In fact, The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan forecaster, recently changed the race’s status to a “toss-up.”
According to Cook’s Swing State Project surveys, Baldwin’s lead has decreased since August. Initially holding a 7-point lead, it has now narrowed to just 2 points in mid-October, making it the closest Senate race among the five battlegrounds being tested.
The polling average by FiveThirtyEight also indicates that the Democrat incumbent currently holds a 3.8 percentage point lead over her Republican challenger, which has gradually diminished in recent weeks.
According to Wisconsin-based Democratic strategist Thad Nation, Baldwin’s campaign has been actively informing their supporters that this race is tightening. This has prompted more concern among Democrats in the closely watched contest.
“This race is taking place in Wisconsin, where the competition is intense,” Nation commented. “In this state, most statewide races are decided by a margin of 25,000 voters or even fewer. As we enter the final three-and-a-half weeks of this race, it was always expected that the gap between the candidates would narrow.”