If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he has promised to carry out a “mass deportation” of at least 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States.
During his first administration, he had made a similar promise, but it didn’t come to fruition due to logistical and legal obstacles. Experts believe that this time around, things may see a change.
According to César García Hernández, an Ohio State University law professor and author of “Migrating to Prison: America’s Obsession with Locking Up Immigrants,” a second term for the Trump administration would mean that they have gained valuable experience and would know how to effectively utilize a large bureaucracy to their advantage.
Fewer legal obstacles will be encountered as well. Trump, during his first term, appointed hundreds of judges, effectively reshaping the courts that had previously impeded or halted his efforts to intensify immigration enforcement.
Mark Morgan, who previously served as acting commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection under the Trump administration, believes that a second term for Trump could lead to a successful and efficient ramp-up.
Morgan suggests that this can be achieved through a “steroid-infused, whole-of-government approach.”
“The focus remains unchanged: pursuing individuals with criminal convictions,” affirmed Morgan. “Nevertheless, no one is exempt from scrutiny.”
Experts suggest that if Trump is re-elected for a second term, he may have public support to carry out actions that were previously met with opposition. For instance, there is a possibility that he may continue separating immigrant parents from their children in order to prosecute the adults.
According to a recent poll conducted by USA TODAY/Suffolk University, 45% of respondents are in favor of Trump’s mass deportation proposal, while 49% oppose it.
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters via landline and cellphone from October 14 to 18, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. It is worth noting that 4% of the respondents remained undecided on the issue.
According to a review conducted by USA TODAY, it has been found that while there isn’t a detailed plan in place for mass deportation, President Trump and his former advisers and administrators have expressed their intentions to do so through various interviews and speeches.
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- Use emergency and executive authorities to bypass existing law, which includes protections for immigrants.
- Activate provisions under a law from the 1700s called the Alien Enemies Act, which was used to detain people of Japanese, German and Italian descent in World War II.
- Rely on local and state police, especially in like-minded Republican districts, to find and arrest immigrants in the country without permission.
- Employ the U.S. military and National Guard in immigration enforcement.
- Redirect federal employees and resources to support the effort.
According to the nonpartisan American Immigration Council, conducting a mass deportation of 1 million people per year could result in an annual cost of $88 billion.
Such an endeavor would necessitate a significant increase in law enforcement personnel, detention facilities, immigration courtrooms, and flight capacity.
“If President Trump is reelected, he plans to take decisive action on border security.
According to Stephen Miller, a former adviser and key figure in Trump’s immigration policies, this includes sealing the border, deploying the military, activating the National Guard, and ensuring that individuals who have entered the country illegally are returned to their home countries.
Miller shared these insights during a conversation with a conservative podcast host.”
Who would Trump deport?
This Article Includes
According to Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a policy analyst at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute, there are approximately 1.3 million immigrants in the country who have been issued removal orders but have not yet left.
According to the expert, the reasons behind the challenges in deporting individuals include the shortage of Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers, limited airplane capacity, and the refusal of certain countries to repatriate their citizens.
According to Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies, individuals who already have removal orders or those who are currently incarcerated on local or state criminal charges may be prioritized for targeting.
“That’s the easy part,” he remarked, referring to the individuals apprehended through Secure Communities, a program that linked local law enforcement agencies with the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement database during the Obama administration.
According to ICE, their docket in July included over 660,000 individuals with criminal histories who were noncitizens.
According to the Center for Migration Studies, over half of the 11 million individuals in question entered the country legally but exceeded the duration of their visas. There are also others who crossed the border illegally several years ago.
It is possible that some of these individuals are married to U.S. citizens and may even have children who are U.S. citizens themselves. As a result, they may be eligible for legal status in the future.
With a simple stroke of the presidential pen, hundreds of thousands of beneficiaries of temporary programs may find themselves in a precarious situation.
According to García Hernández, the Trump administration is actively seeking to broaden the scope of individuals they aim to potentially deport from the United States.
This includes targeting not only those without legal permission to be in the country, but also individuals who have obtained the federal government’s authorization to reside in the United States.
According to the National Immigration Forum, over 860,000 individuals from 16 different countries, including Afghanistan, Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela, and Haiti, are benefiting from “temporary protected status.” It is important to note that the Department of Homeland Security has the authority to cancel this program at any given moment.
According to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, an additional 530,000 immigrants benefit from a temporary status known as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA).
These individuals arrived as children when their parents crossed the border illegally. It is worth noting that this program was initiated under the Obama administration and faced attempts at termination by President Trump.
However, the Supreme Court, which at the time had a more liberal composition, intervened and blocked his efforts.
According to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University, there are currently 1.6 million asylum-seekers awaiting hearings in their cases.
Mario Russell, the executive director of the Center for Migration Studies, emphasized that the individuals in question are not unauthorized immigrants. Rather, they are individuals who have been granted permission to have their cases heard.
‘Dragnet operations’: How the government would find immigrants to deport
Identifying and locating the millions of immigrants without legal status, who are not on the government’s rosters, would pose an immediate challenge to mass deportation.
In order to address this challenge, Trump has suggested that federal authorities could receive assistance from state and local law enforcement officers.
According to Morgan, the federal government has the ability to utilize the extensive resources of the intelligence community to create targeted packages.
Leading this effort would be the National Targeting Center of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Other Homeland Security agencies, such as the FBI and U.S. Marshals, could also be involved in this endeavor.
According to Morgan, NTC will serve as the central hub for receiving intelligence from various agencies, with state and local agencies playing a crucial role in this process.
According to the speaker, the investigations would involve knocking on people’s doors, as well as conducting raids on workplaces. He described these operations as essentially being dragnet operations.
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Do immigrants have the same rights as citizens?
Immigrants who are accused of being in the country illegally are entitled to constitutional rights. The Supreme Court has consistently ruled that the government cannot deport individuals without providing them with “due process,” which means giving them the chance to present their case in court and explain why they should be allowed to stay legally.
Undocumented immigrants in this country are entitled to the same fundamental rights as any other individual facing criminal charges. These rights include the right to legal representation, protection against unreasonable searches, the right to remain silent, and protection against cruel and unusual punishment.
According to immigration lawyer Charles Kuck, it is not acceptable to simply take individuals from the streets, detain them in jail, put them on a plane, and send them to another country.
Immigrants without authorization may not have the same practical rights.
According to the Supreme Court, immigration court proceedings are classified as civil rather than criminal. As a result, detained immigrants who are at risk of deportation are only entitled to legal representation if they have the financial means to afford it.
Migrants who are apprehended within two weeks of entering the country and within 100 miles of the border can generally be deported without the need for a court hearing or a lawyer.
In certain situations, emergency authorities have the power to temporarily suspend certain rights.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, President Trump utilized Title 42, a public health law from the 1940s, to address the crisis.
This emergency authority enabled both the Trump and Biden administrations to promptly repatriate migrants to Mexico or their home countries, without affording them an opportunity to assert a claim for staying in the United States.
According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, there were over 2.7 million expulsions of migrants at the Southwest border between 2020 and 2023.
According to Ken Cuccinelli, a senior fellow at the Center for Renewing America and former acting deputy secretary of the Department of Homeland Security under Trump, immigrants with deportation orders have limited rights.
Cuccinelli emphasized that when it comes to the deportation process, illegal aliens do not possess the same rights as an American accused of a crime.
How would Trump detain people awaiting deportation?
In 2022, the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics reported that there were 1.2 million prisoners held in all of the country’s state and federal prisons. This statistic helps put into perspective the massive undertaking it would be to deport 11 million people.
In the past, immigration detention was carried out on a much smaller scale.
Currently, Congress allocates enough funding for ICE to detain an average of 34,000 individuals daily. According to agency statistics, ICE utilizes over 190 facilities to detain immigrants in at least 40 states and U.S. territories.
According to Trump, there would be no need for extensive detention centers as the deportations would be carried out swiftly.
Many immigrants have the right to present their case to stay, but the immigration court system is currently facing a backlog of 3.5 million cases. As a result, it could take months or even years for individuals to have their hearing.
Foreign governments must also be willing to accept deportees, which can sometimes be a lengthy and challenging process. In some cases, negotiations between governments may take time or even fail altogether. It’s worth noting that certain countries, like China and Venezuela, have previously refused to take back their citizens who are being deported.
According to the American Immigration Council, it would be necessary for the country to establish 1,000 additional immigration courtrooms and increase ICE’s detention capacity by 24 times in order to accommodate the growing number of individuals awaiting hearings.
Old law, new application: The Alien Enemies Act
In an effort to expedite deportations, Trump announced his intention to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. The Republican Party also supported Trump’s plan, using this law as justification to remove immigrant gang members, drug dealers, or cartel members who are known or suspected to be a part of a foreign government’s invasion.
The courts have the authority to deny the president the power to control migration during times of war. However, there have been instances where the courts have chosen not to question the president’s determination of what qualifies as an “invasion” or have recognized the president’s ultimate decision-making authority.
According to Katherine Ebright, a lawyer specializing in war powers at the Brennan Center for Justice, the Alien Enemies Act focuses on an individual’s identity as a foreign citizen, rather than their actions or legal status.
According to Ebright, having the birth heritage or citizenship of the so-called foreign belligerent is what matters, regardless of anything else.
Trump has also pledged to utilize the military and National Guard in his efforts. Throughout history, both Democratic and Republican administrations have utilized the National Guard to aid in border enforcement missions.
However, experts emphasize that invoking the Insurrection Act would be necessary to deploy soldiers to apprehend immigrants on a nationwide scale.
According to Morgan, the military could play a crucial role in the logistics of detention. He suggests that military installations across the nation could be utilized to accommodate immigrants who are being detained, especially those who are nonviolent offenders or families.
“We keep them in family residential centers, providing them with all the necessary medical care and amenities, while we work on the process of removing them as a family to their home country,” stated Morgan. He added, “The military can assist in providing the appropriate facilities for this purpose.”
A history of deportation efforts
Trump often mentioned his intention to base his deportation efforts on a historical operation carried out by President Dwight D. Eisenhower about 70 years ago.
Eisenhower’s initiative in 1954 focused on the apprehension and removal of a significant number of Mexicans and individuals of Mexican heritage.
This operation heavily depended on the assistance of state and local law enforcement, leading to a widespread roundup that resulted in the expulsion of not only migrants but also American citizens.
President Barack Obama holds the record for the highest number of deportations among all U.S. presidents. In 2012, his administration removed over 407,000 individuals, surpassing any previous records, as reported by Syracuse’s Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse.
Throughout his eight-year tenure, a total of more than 3.1 million deportations were recorded by ICE under his administration.
According to the same TRAC dataset, the highest number of deportations occurred in 2019 during Trump’s administration, with over 269,000 people being deported.
During Trump’s presidency, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) carried out nearly 932,000 deportations over the course of four years.
